This paper reconciles the asymptotic disagreement between Bayesian and frequentist inference in set‐identified models by adopting a multiple‐prior (robust) Bayesian approach. We propose new tools for Bayesian inference in set‐identified models and show that they have a well‐defined posterior interpretation in finite samples and are asymptotically valid from the frequentist perspective. The main idea is to construct a prior class that removes the source of the disagreement: the need to specify an unrevisable prior for the structural parameter given the reduced‐form parameter. The corresponding class of posteriors can be summarized by reporting the ‘posterior lower and upper probabilities’ of a given event and/or the ‘set of posterior means’ and the associated ‘robust credible region’. We show that the set of posterior means is a consistent estimator of the true identified set and the robust credible region has the correct frequentist asymptotic coverage for the true identified set if it is convex. Otherwise, the method provides posterior inference about the convex hull of the identified set. For impulse‐response analysis in set‐identified Structural Vector Autoregressions, the new tools can be used to overcome or quantify the sensitivity of standard Bayesian inference to the choice of an unrevisable prior.
MLA
Giacomini, Raffaella, and Toru Kitagawa. “Robust Bayesian Inference for Set-Identified Models.” Econometrica, vol. 89, .no 4, Econometric Society, 2021, pp. 1519-1556, https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA16773
Chicago
Giacomini, Raffaella, and Toru Kitagawa. “Robust Bayesian Inference for Set-Identified Models.” Econometrica, 89, .no 4, (Econometric Society: 2021), 1519-1556. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA16773
APA
Giacomini, R., & Kitagawa, T. (2021). Robust Bayesian Inference for Set-Identified Models. Econometrica, 89(4), 1519-1556. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA16773
We are deeply saddened by the passing of Kate Ho, the John L. Weinberg Professor of Economics and Business Policy at Princeton University and a Fellow of the Econometric Society. Kate was a brilliant IO economist and scholar whose impact on the profession will resonate for many years to come.
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