Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Marina Halac • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: Jan, 2026, Volume 94, Issue 1

Coordination and Commitment in International Climate Action: Evidence from Palm Oil

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20608
Correction added on 19 March 2026, after first online publication: A reference citation was amended.
p. 1-33

Allan Hsiao

Weak environmental regulation has global consequences. When domestic regulation fails, the international community can target emitters with trade policy. I develop a dynamic empirical framework for evaluating trade policy as a substitute for domestic regulation, and I apply the framework to the market for palm oil, a major driver of deforestation and global CO2 emissions. Relative to business as usual, a domestic production tax of 50% reduces CO2 emissions by 7.4 Gt from 1988 to 2016, amounting to 0.26 Gt annually. Coordinated, committed import tariffs of similar magnitude reduce emissions by 5.4 Gt over the same period. The cost of these import tariffs is only $15 per ton of CO2, even accounting for compensating transfers that recognize welfare losses for producing countries. Without coordination and commitment, import tariffs have more limited effects. Alternative policies include domestic export taxes, which are fiscally appealing independent of emission concerns, and a carbon border adjustment mechanism, which encourages domestic regulation.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "Coordination and Commitment in International Climate Action: Evidence from Palm Oil"

Allan Hsiao

This supplement contains material not found within the manuscript.

Supplement to "Coordination and Commitment in International Climate Action: Evidence from Palm Oil"

Allan Hsiao

The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17430585. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices.