The U.S. Supreme Court's 2010 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission deregulated campaign finance, enabling the rise of a new political action committee (the Super PAC) with broad freedom to raise and spend money. This led to an unprecedented surge in spending in primary and general elections. To evaluate the impact of Super PACs, I estimate a multistage model of political competition using data from U.S. Congressional elections between 2010 and 2020. I find that Super PAC spending by both sides prompts offsetting responses, resulting in limited net equilibrium effects. However, by amplifying the role of donors, Super PACs still have the potential to reshape the electoral landscape.
MLA
Cox, Christian. “The Equilibrium Effects of Campaign Finance Deregulation on U.S. Elections.” Econometrica, vol. 94, .no 4, Econometric Society, 2026, pp. 1209-1243, https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22979
Chicago
Cox, Christian. “The Equilibrium Effects of Campaign Finance Deregulation on U.S. Elections.” Econometrica, 94, .no 4, (Econometric Society: 2026), 1209-1243. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22979
APA
Cox, C. (2026). The Equilibrium Effects of Campaign Finance Deregulation on U.S. Elections. Econometrica, 94(4), 1209-1243. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22979
Supplement to "The Equilibrium Effects of Campaign Finance Deregulation on U.S. Elections"
Christian Cox
The replication package for this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17097533. The Journal checked the data and codes included in the package for their ability to reproduce the results in the paper and approved online appendices. Given the highly demanding nature of the algorithms, the reproducibility checks were run on a simplified version of the code, which is also available in the replication package.
Serena Ng stepped down as Coeditor of the Monograph Series on June 30, 2026. On July 1st, Peter Arcidiacono became the new Coeditor responsible for theoretical and applied econometrics.
By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device. Cookies are used to optimize your experience and anonymously analyze website performance and traffic.