Econometrica

Journal Of The Econometric Society

An International Society for the Advancement of Economic
Theory in its Relation to Statistics and Mathematics

Edited by: Guido W. Imbens • Print ISSN: 0012-9682 • Online ISSN: 1468-0262

Econometrica: Jul, 2023, Volume 91, Issue 4

The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21004
p. 1297-1332

Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion

Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some firms. The effects on their decisions relative to their initial plans as well as relative to an untreated control group are measured in a follow‐up survey six months later. We find that as firms become more uncertain, they reduce their prices, employment, and investment, their sales decline, and they become less likely to invest in new technologies or open new facilities. These ex post effects of uncertainty are similar to how firms say they would respond to higher uncertainty when asked hypothetical questions.


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Supplemental Material

Supplement to "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions"

Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Olivier Coibion

This online appendix contains material not found within the manuscript.

Supplement to "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions"

Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Olivier Coibion

This zip file contains the replication files for the manuscript.

Supplement to "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions"

Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Olivier Coibion

Surveys for the manuscript.