Gender Imbalance, Marriage Stability, and Divorce Rate: Evidence from China

The deficit of men or women in a regional marriage market is a commonly observed phenomenon stemming from factors such as "Missing Girls" at birth, immigration, and higher mortality rates among men due to war. However, the impact of this deficit on marriage stability remains not well understood. In this paper, using provincial, census, and household survey data in China, we find that a higher male-to-female ratio increases divorce rates. Further analyses support the hypothesis that this impact is primarily driven by married women having more options outside their marriage. The effect is more pronounced in economies with greater income inequality, where there are more wealthy prospective partners. These findings highlight the significance of gender balance in sustaining stable marriages and uncover a new contributing factor to the escalating divorce rates in China.